Mogadishu, Somalia — Nearly 874,000 people in Somalia could be displaced by flooding over the next three months, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has warned, as heavy rainfall and rising river levels threaten communities already struggling with drought and repeated displacement.

The warning comes as Somalia enters a rainy season forecast to bring above-average rainfall amid strengthening El Niño conditions. Humanitarian agencies fear the combination of rising floodwaters and existing vulnerabilities could trigger another major displacement emergency.

UN Secretary-General spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said projections by the Danish Refugee Council and the IOM indicate that flooding could account for 92 per cent of expected displacement during the period.

Many affected households have already endured successive climate shocks, leaving them with limited resources to recover from another emergency. Flooding could destroy crops, damage livelihoods, contaminate drinking water and disrupt access to healthcare and other essential services.

The IOM said it was working with Somali authorities to strengthen early warning systems and prepare emergency assistance as signs of flooding begin to emerge. Early preparation is considered critical to helping communities move to safer locations and reducing the impact on households at risk.

People living in overcrowded displacement camps face particular danger. Many have already been forced from their homes by drought, insecurity or previous floods, and further displacement could worsen living conditions while increasing pressure on already limited humanitarian services.

Despite the growing threat, funding for preparedness and response remains significantly below requirements. According to Dujarric, the IOM has secured only about 14.4 per cent of the $16.62 million needed to prepare for and respond to El Niño-related emergencies.

The shortfall has raised concerns about whether humanitarian organisations will have sufficient resources to support vulnerable communities before flooding intensifies. The IOM is appealing for urgent international assistance to expand preparedness measures and deliver early support before more families are forced to leave their homes.

With hundreds of thousands of people potentially at risk, humanitarian agencies are urging donors and authorities to act before worsening weather conditions trigger further displacement across Somalia.

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